Preparedness at Home: Assessing Regional Vulnerability and Risk
Old Head Lighthouse, Kinsale Ireland
Climate, topography, population density, and geographic region are just a few of the factors that can have a dramatic impact on the type and severity of potential disaster that can impact a given community. Coastal states, like Florida, Alabama, and Texas focus significant effort on hurricane preparedness that would be an absolute waste of time, energy, and money for families living in Wyoming or Montana. However, the threat of wildfire in forested mountain areas of the pacific northwest is much more likely than in the deserts of Arizona and New Mexico. Each state, region, or community has unique risks that should be considered when planning and preparing for disasters or emergencies that might impact our home or our family. Natural features such as lakes, rivers, or mountains can expose communities to increased risk of flooding or mudslides. While many of these natural features may lure us to these communities, they must also be considered as potential risks in certain situations.
Communities may also be vulnerable to manmade threats in the built environment that must also be considered. Living in close proximity to nuclear power plants, heavy manufacturing facilities, chemical plants, or commercial ports can cause exposure to harmful chemicals or environmental irritants if an incident occurs at that particular facility. Urban areas with high population density may experience significant delay and bottlenecks during evacuation due to the large volume of people attempting to flee a potential incident or disaster. In areas prone to earthquake, tall buildings and large structures may threaten nearby residents with falling debris or collapse following event. For these reasons, it is important to examine our surroundings, Identify the risks and threats that are most common in a given community, or most likely to occur in a given region and plan accordingly.
This process is called hazard vulnerability assessment. The term describes a process by which we consider the likelihood of an particular type of incident; the potential impact that type of incident may have on our home, family or community; and what we can do to mitigate and prepare, and what tools and plans are needed to adequately respond if that event were to occur. In this segment of the series, we will discuss each step in this process, and provide tools to aid in assessment and evaluation of hazards, threats, and risks in our own community, the likelihood of their occurrence, and their potential impact. This important step will guide our preparedness activities to make sure that we are preparing appropriately for the events that might happen in our own community, and building plans with our family that address threats posed by where we live and how we live.
Hazard Vulnerability Assessment
One of the simplest ways to evaluate potential threats in our community is to look to the past. What types of large scale incidents have occurred in our area, and what were the impacts to the community? Online resources are a good starting point for our assessment. Visiting your state or local emergency management website and review some of the recommendations they provide for preparedness. In addition, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides a searchable database of all declared disasters by county (https://www.fema.gov/disaster/declarations) which can provide insight into past incidents and the magnitude of damage caused by those incidents.
As first responders, even if we are new to a particular community, we have access to an incredible human network of firefighters, paramedics, law enforcement officers, and emergency managers with first hand experience in responding to disasters in the communities we live in and serve. Talking to senior personnel in our department, or in neighboring communities can provide significant insight into historic incidents, local response, community reaction to specific types of incidents, and timelines to recovery. These conversations can also provide helpful information on evacuation routes, community resources, and danger zones in our own communities.
A thorough assessment includes consideration of every type of incident, and rating the likelihood and potential impact of such disasters. By reviewing a comprehensive list of potential disasters, we are less likely to miss a potential threat. The list below provides some examples of incidents to consider in our own communities:
Natural Hazards
Avalanche
Drought
Earthquake
Flood
Hurricane
Tornado
Tsunami
Wildfire
Winter Storm
Manmade Hazards
Act of Terrorism
Chemical Spill
Civil Unrest
Explosion
Fire
Mass Casualty Incident
Pandemic
War / Homeland Security
Infrastructure Threats
Communication Failure
Cybersecurity Incident
Dam Failure
Gas Leak / Rupture
Power Outage
Sewer Failure
Supply Chain Disruption
Transportation Outage
Water Supply Disruption
Probability and Impact
After exploring potential disaster or incident scenarios, it is important to consider the probability of an incident and its impact on the family and community. Several hazard vulnerability tools use a simple scoring to evaluate probability. If an incident has a low likelihood of occurrence, it may score a 1 or 2. This means that the hazard, risk, or threat is highly unlikely. Examples include snowstorms in the Florida Keys… there is a chance it could happen but it’s not likely. Wildfire in the pacific northwest occurs almost every year, and as such that type of incident would have a very high likelihood, rated at a 5. This simple scoring system allows the family to prioritize planning and preparedness activities to the incidents that have a higher likelihood.
The next step involves a similar scoring system that explores the impacts on people, property, and the environment. Using the same 1-5 scale, consider the impacts of a specific type of incident on the members of the family, the family home and property, and finally the environment. Incidents that might cause serious bodily injury or death would rate 4 or 5 in the human impact. For example, an internet or communication outage may receive a score of 1 for impact on people, however, natural disasters like flooding or tornado may score a 5.
When considering impact to property, it is important to recognize the impact on usability of the home or property, as well as survivability. Certain types of incidents may render a home uninhabitable, such as flooding or loss of heating/cooling in extreme temperatures. This factor helps to guide decisions to evacuate or shelter in place during the incident. Survivability refers to the ability of a structure to protect the occupants until the threat has passed. This includes characteristics of the property, including elevation, terrain, and access. Homes built in coastal areas prone to flooding may not provide the survivability required to protect the family during a hurricane, and homes built in close proximity to tall trees with no fire break may not provide the survivability necessary during a wildfire.
The environmental impact refers to indirect impacts to people and property from environmental conditions. If an incident has resulted in contaminated water or significant air quality issues, the environment may not be conducive to occupancy of a home or a community. Long-term impacts of power outages, infrastructure interruptions, and contamination is an indicator of environmental impacts. Chronic health conditions within the family may magnify the impact of these factors. For example, family members with asthma or other respiratory disease can require alternate decision-making if the threat includes an increased risk to those with respiratory disease. The same can be true for family members that have medical conditions requiring access to power, such as ventilator dependency, sleep apnea requiring CPAP, or conditions requiring refrigerated medication.
Community Resource Assessment
It is also helpful to …
What do we do with this Information?
The information gathered during this process can be helpful to guide the development of family preparedness plans, supply and equipment purchases, and timely decision-making for evacuation, sheltering-in-place, and other actions.
Family Preparedness Plans
Planning is a time-consuming process. As a family begins to develop emergency plans, the prioritized list of threats and vulnerabilities can provide an approach to selecting which type of incidents to plan for first. The development of emergency plans includes discussion and practice among family members, purchasing of specific gear, and construction of procedures to follow if the incident occurs. This prioritized list is helpful to drive the overall planning process to address the most pressing incidents first, and transition to the next threat in an organized manner.
Communication and Information Gathering
Understanding the different methods of notification from commercial or government sources is critical to emergency planning. By defining priorities for planning based on potential threats and vulnerabilities, the family can explore notification options and subscribe to resources like community networks, often available through sheriff’s offices or emergency management, or resources, such as the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service or similar government agencies. Commercially available weather networks or intelligence websites can be unique sources of information to serve as triggers for emergency planning.
Equipment and Supply Purchases
Exploring the threats, risks, and vulnerabilities present in our own community can help with decisions about family financial decisions. Preparedness supplies, such as generators, light sources, emergency food, and fuel can be expensive. An intentional evaluation of vulnerability can help to target purchases for the most appropriate and necessary situations that might occur in a particular community. Additionally, understanding the capability and timelines of local government and public safety teams to support communities following an incident will help guide decision on the amount of supplies. Threats and vulnerability helps describe what may be needed, and the timeline for rescue describes how much may be needed.
Decision-making
Through a comprehensive understanding of local or regional threats and vulnerabilities, sources of notification, emergency services response information, and procurement of emergency supplies, the family can develop appropriate triggers for each kind of incident. When should the family evacuate? When should family members leave work and return home? What actions should the children take if they are home alone? The answers to each of these questions are hazard-dependent, should be included in the family emergency plan, and should be informed by some of the information provided above.
What’s Next?
In the coming weeks, the Bison Six team will continue to explore the concepts of family readiness, and steps that can be taken to improve preparedness and survivability, especially when family members in the first responder community may not be at home to activate the family emergency plan. Stay tuned for next week’s discussion of Communication resources and Information/Intelligence Sources.
